Which Team Will Win?

Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City

Sunday 13th September 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 4 · Full time

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Manchester City win

0–1Full time

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Man City win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester City crest

Confidence: Slight

MUN MCI W-W-L-W-D D-L-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.00 0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-W-W-W W-W-D-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 42% 58% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.36 1.77 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1616 Exceptional 1737 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.57 3.53 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 2.14 1.97 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 70% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.23 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven MUN MCI W-W-L-W-D D-L-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.00 0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-W-W-W W-W-D-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 42% 58% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.36 1.77 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1616 Exceptional 1737 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.57 3.53 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 2.14 1.97 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 70% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.31 1.23 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Strong. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins – about 72% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester City to win: 47% against 29%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the midweek cup round – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester CityPossession 58% v 42% (decisive); Elo performance 1737 v 1616 (useful); Goals 1.77 v 1.36 (slight).
  • For Manchester UnitedAttack 2.14 v 1.97 (slight); Home and away form L-W-W-W-W v W-W-D-D-W (marginal); Goal difference 1.00 v 0.80 (marginal).
  • FormManchester United W-W-L-W-D, Manchester City D-L-W-W-W.

NB 4 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmedManchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 S. Lammens 13 P. Dorgu 6 L. Martínez 5 H. Maguire 2 Diogo Dalot 37 K. Mainoo 18 Y. Tielemans 9 M. Rashford 8 Bruno Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 10 Matheus Cunha
1 G. Donnarumma 24 J. Gvardiol 3 Rúben Dias 6 M. Guéhi 27 Matheus Nunes 17 E. Fernández 5 E. Anderson 42 A. Semenyo 10 R. Cherki 47 P. Foden 9 E. Haaland
  1. S. Lammens
  2. P. Dorgu
  3. L. Martínez
  4. H. Maguire
  5. Diogo Dalot
  6. K. Mainoo
  7. Y. Tielemans
  8. M. Rashford
  9. Bruno Fernandes
  10. B. Mbeumo
  11. Matheus Cunha
  1. G. Donnarumma
  2. J. Gvardiol
  3. Rúben Dias
  4. M. Guéhi
  5. Matheus Nunes
  6. E. Fernández
  7. E. Anderson
  8. A. Semenyo
  9. R. Cherki
  10. P. Foden
  11. E. Haaland

Substitutes K. Darlow, A. Heaven, S. Lacey, N. Mazraoui, M. Mount, Andrey Santos, L. Yoro, J. Zirkzee, B. Šeško

Substitutes Allan, A. Bouaddi, A. Khusanov, M. Kovačić, R. Lewis, I. Ndiaye, N. O'Reilly, G. Rulli, Vitor Reis

Our call: 29% MUN · 24% draw · 47% MCI  ·  bookmakers: 30% / 25% / 45%  ·  expected goals 1.36–1.77

Last updated 13 Sept at 16:18

What separates them

The lean to Man City comes from the long-run strength gap, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the midweek cup round.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man City goals Man United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man United 0–0 Man City: 5% Man United 0–1 Man City: 7% Man United 0–2 Man City: 7% Man United 0–3 Man City: 4% Man United 0–4 Man City: 2% Man United 0–5 Man City: <1% Man United 0–6 Man City: <1% Man United 1–0 Man City: 6% Man United 1–1 Man City: 11% Man United 1–2 Man City: 9% Man United 1–3 Man City: 6% Man United 1–4 Man City: 2% Man United 1–5 Man City: <1% Man United 1–6 Man City: <1% Man United 2–0 Man City: 4% Man United 2–1 Man City: 7% Man United 2–2 Man City: 6% Man United 2–3 Man City: 4% Man United 2–4 Man City: 2% Man United 2–5 Man City: <1% Man United 2–6 Man City: <1% Man United 3–0 Man City: 2% Man United 3–1 Man City: 3% Man United 3–2 Man City: 3% Man United 3–3 Man City: 2% Man United 3–4 Man City: <1% Man United 3–5 Man City: <1% Man United 3–6 Man City: <1% Man United 4–0 Man City: <1% Man United 4–1 Man City: 1% Man United 4–2 Man City: <1% Man United 4–3 Man City: <1% Man United 4–4 Man City: <1% Man United 4–5 Man City: <1% Man United 5–0 Man City: <1% Man United 5–1 Man City: <1% Man United 5–2 Man City: <1% Man United 5–3 Man City: <1% Man United 5–4 Man City: <1% Man United 6–1 Man City: <1% Man United 6–2 Man City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man United win, above it Man City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →