Which Team Will Win?

Coventry City 0–5 Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunday 13th September 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 4 · Full time

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Brighton & Hove Albion win

0–5Full time

Coventry City crest
◀ Coventry win Brighton win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

Confidence: Fair

COV BHA L-L-L L-L-W-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.67 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L W-D-L-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.00 1.58 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 63% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.3 5.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 0.95 1.94 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.10 2.76 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Weak 1414 Above average 1560 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.38 1.62 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven COV BHA L-L-L L-L-W-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.67 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L W-D-L-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.00 1.58 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 63% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.3 5.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 0.95 1.94 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.10 2.76 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Weak 1414 Above average 1560 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.38 1.62 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: GK save rate. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 65% to 63%. Historically, the side with the goalkeeper in better form takes these roughly 72% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callBrighton & Hove Albion to win: 50% against 24%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionShots on target 5.5 v 2.3 (decisive); Attack 1.94 v 0.95 (decisive); Goal difference -0.20 v -1.67 (clear).
  • For Coventry CityXI defensive record 1.38 v 1.62 (useful).
  • FormCoventry City L-L-L, Brighton & Hove Albion L-L-W-L-D.

NB 2 of the 8 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Coventry City 3-4-2-1 confirmedBrighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

19 C. Rushworth 2 E. Pinnock 4 B. Thomas 24 A. Amenda 3 J. Dasilva 6 M. Grimes 16 F. Onyeka 27 M. van Ewijk 10 E. Mason-Clark 5 J. Rudoni 14 T. Awoniyi
1 B. Verbruggen 21 O. Boscagli 5 L. Dunk 44 L. Vušković 24 F. Kadıoğlu 26 Y. Ayari 13 P. Groß 29 M. De Cuyper 35 M. Yalcouyé 25 D. Gómez 19 C. Kostoulas
  1. C. Rushworth
  2. E. Pinnock
  3. B. Thomas
  4. A. Amenda
  5. J. Dasilva
  6. M. Grimes
  7. F. Onyeka
  8. M. van Ewijk
  9. E. Mason-Clark
  10. J. Rudoni
  11. T. Awoniyi
  1. B. Verbruggen
  2. O. Boscagli
  3. L. Dunk
  4. L. Vušković
  5. F. Kadıoğlu
  6. Y. Ayari
  7. P. Groß
  8. M. De Cuyper
  9. M. Yalcouyé
  10. D. Gómez
  11. C. Kostoulas

Substitutes D. Bentley, S. Cherif, G. Hamer, S. Mfuni, T. Sakamoto, L. Tchaouna, B. Thomas-Asante, V. Torp, C. Yirenkyi

Substitutes Chema Andrés, P. David, J. Hadjam, Y. Ibrahim, Costinha, M. O'Riley, I. Osman, J. Steele, P. Struijk

Our call: 24% COV · 26% draw · 50% BHA  ·  bookmakers: 24% / 25% / 51%  ·  expected goals 1.00–1.58

Last updated 13 Sept at 13:17

What separates them

The lean to Brighton comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Brighton goals Coventry goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Coventry 0–0 Brighton: 8% Coventry 0–1 Brighton: 12% Coventry 0–2 Brighton: 9% Coventry 0–3 Brighton: 5% Coventry 0–4 Brighton: 2% Coventry 0–5 Brighton: <1% Coventry 0–6 Brighton: <1% Coventry 1–0 Brighton: 7% Coventry 1–1 Brighton: 12% Coventry 1–2 Brighton: 9% Coventry 1–3 Brighton: 5% Coventry 1–4 Brighton: 2% Coventry 1–5 Brighton: <1% Coventry 1–6 Brighton: <1% Coventry 2–0 Brighton: 4% Coventry 2–1 Brighton: 6% Coventry 2–2 Brighton: 5% Coventry 2–3 Brighton: 2% Coventry 2–4 Brighton: <1% Coventry 2–5 Brighton: <1% Coventry 2–6 Brighton: <1% Coventry 3–0 Brighton: 1% Coventry 3–1 Brighton: 2% Coventry 3–2 Brighton: 2% Coventry 3–3 Brighton: <1% Coventry 3–4 Brighton: <1% Coventry 3–5 Brighton: <1% Coventry 4–0 Brighton: <1% Coventry 4–1 Brighton: <1% Coventry 4–2 Brighton: <1% Coventry 4–3 Brighton: <1% Coventry 4–4 Brighton: <1% Coventry 5–0 Brighton: <1% Coventry 5–1 Brighton: <1% Coventry 5–2 Brighton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Coventry win, above it Brighton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →