Which Team Will Win?

Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal

Saturday 12th September 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 4 · Full time

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Arsenal win

0–2Full time

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Arsenal win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Strong

SUN ARS W-W-L-W-D W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.60 1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-L-D-W-W W-L-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.87 1.93 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1493 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.27 0.64 Defence Conceded per game 66% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.26 0.83 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.03 2.74 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.1 5.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game SUN ARS W-W-L-W-D W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.60 1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-L-D-W-W W-L-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.87 1.93 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1493 Exceptional 1758 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.27 0.64 Defence Conceded per game 66% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.26 0.83 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.03 2.74 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.1 5.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, Exceptional against Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 62% against 16%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalElo performance 1758 v 1493 (decisive); XI defensive record 0.83 v 1.26 (decisive); GK save rate 74% v 66% (clear).
  • For SunderlandNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormSunderland W-W-L-W-D, Arsenal W-W-W-W-W.

NB 4 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 confirmedArsenal 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

22 R. Roefs 17 Reinildo Mandava 5 D. Ballard 4 K. Danso 20 N. Mukiele 27 N. Sadiki 34 G. Xhaka 10 N. Angulo 28 E. Le Fée 12 T. Meunier 9 B. Brobbey
1 David Raya 33 R. Calafiori 6 Gabriel Magalhães 15 E. Konsa 4 B. White 49 M. Lewis-Skelly 41 D. Rice 17 C. Tzolis 8 M. Ødegaard 7 B. Saka 29 K. Havertz
  1. R. Roefs
  2. Reinildo Mandava
  3. D. Ballard
  4. K. Danso
  5. N. Mukiele
  6. N. Sadiki
  7. G. Xhaka
  8. N. Angulo
  9. E. Le Fée
  10. T. Meunier
  11. B. Brobbey
  1. David Raya
  2. R. Calafiori
  3. Gabriel Magalhães
  4. E. Konsa
  5. B. White
  6. M. Lewis-Skelly
  7. D. Rice
  8. C. Tzolis
  9. M. Ødegaard
  10. B. Saka
  11. K. Havertz

Substitutes O. Alderete, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, T. Hume, W. Isidor, D. Méthalie, L. O'Nien, C. Rigg, C. Talbi

Substitutes Kepa Arrizabalaga, E. Eze, Bruno Guimarães, V. Gyökeres, P. Hincapié, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, J. Timber, Martín Zubimendi

Our call: 16% SUN · 22% draw · 62% ARS  ·  bookmakers: 13% / 23% / 64%  ·  expected goals 0.87–1.93

Last updated 12 Sept at 19:18

What separates them

The lean to Arsenal comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them.

Likeliest scoreline: 0–1

Arsenal goals Sunderland goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal: 6% Sunderland 0–1 Arsenal: 11% Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal: 11% Sunderland 0–3 Arsenal: 7% Sunderland 0–4 Arsenal: 4% Sunderland 0–5 Arsenal: 1% Sunderland 0–6 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 1–0 Arsenal: 5% Sunderland 1–1 Arsenal: 11% Sunderland 1–2 Arsenal: 10% Sunderland 1–3 Arsenal: 6% Sunderland 1–4 Arsenal: 3% Sunderland 1–5 Arsenal: 1% Sunderland 1–6 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 2–0 Arsenal: 2% Sunderland 2–1 Arsenal: 4% Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal: 4% Sunderland 2–3 Arsenal: 3% Sunderland 2–4 Arsenal: 1% Sunderland 2–5 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 2–6 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 3–0 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 3–1 Arsenal: 1% Sunderland 3–2 Arsenal: 1% Sunderland 3–3 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 3–4 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 3–5 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 4–0 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 4–1 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 4–2 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 4–3 Arsenal: <1% Sunderland 4–4 Arsenal: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Sunderland win, above it Arsenal do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →