Which Team Will Win?

Tottenham Hotspur 0–0 Everton

Saturday 12th September 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 4 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
MoreLess

Everton win

0–0Full time

Tottenham Hotspur crest
◀ Tottenham win Everton win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Everton crest

Knife-edge – Everton shade it

TOT EVE L-W-L-L-D L-L-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.00 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-D-D-W-L D-L-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.80 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.41 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.34 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1456 Above average 1534 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.19 1.51 Defence Conceded per game 3.8 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 63% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved TOT EVE L-W-L-L-D L-L-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.00 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-D-D-W-L D-L-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.80 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.41 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.34 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1456 Above average 1534 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.19 1.51 Defence Conceded per game 3.8 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 63% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Tottenham Hotspur: 1.34 to 1.48. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here – 73% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Tottenham Hotspur; the fine margin sits with Everton, who edge the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and changes in the other camp.

  • The callKnife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur 34%, draw 27%, Everton 40%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Everton comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and changes in the other camp.
  • For EvertonShots on target 4.9 v 3.8 (useful); Goal difference -0.20 v -1.00 (useful); Elo performance 1534 v 1456 (useful).
  • For Tottenham HotspurPossession 54% v 46% (useful); Defence 1.19 v 1.51 (useful); XI defensive record 1.34 v 1.48 (slight).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur L-W-L-L-D, Everton L-L-W-D-D.

NB 4 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 confirmedEverton 4-1-4-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Everton 4-1-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

31 A. Kinský 3 A. Robertson 37 van de Ven 6 J. van Hecke 14 A. Gray 16 S. Tonali 30 R. Bentancur 22 Omar Marmoush 18 Mateus Fernandes 17 Sávio 19 D. Solanke
1 J. Pickford 16 V. Mykolenko 4 Branthwaite 6 J. Tarkowski 2 Maitland-Niles 37 J. Garner 19 T. George 8 Dewsbury-Hall 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 11 T. Barry
  1. A. Kinský
  2. A. Robertson
  3. M. van de Ven
  4. J. van Hecke
  5. A. Gray
  6. S. Tonali
  7. R. Bentancur
  8. Omar Marmoush
  9. Mateus Fernandes
  10. Sávio
  11. D. Solanke
  1. J. Pickford
  2. V. Mykolenko
  3. J. Branthwaite
  4. J. Tarkowski
  5. A. Maitland-Niles
  6. J. Garner
  7. T. George
  8. K. Dewsbury-Hall
  9. H. Armstrong
  10. B. Johnson
  11. T. Barry

Substitutes T. Adarabioyo, L. Bergvall, B. Davies, M. Dúbravka, C. Gallagher, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, M. Senesi, M. Tel

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, B. Graham, J. Grealish, H. Hackney, M. Keane, T. King, J. O'Brien, M. Travers

Our call: 34% TOT · 27% draw · 40% EVE  ·  bookmakers: 47% / 27% / 27%  ·  expected goals 1.28–1.41

Last updated 12 Sept at 17:12

What separates them

The lean to Everton comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and changes in the other camp.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Everton goals Tottenham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Tottenham 0–0 Everton: 7% Tottenham 0–1 Everton: 9% Tottenham 0–2 Everton: 7% Tottenham 0–3 Everton: 3% Tottenham 0–4 Everton: 1% Tottenham 0–5 Everton: <1% Tottenham 0–6 Everton: <1% Tottenham 1–0 Everton: 8% Tottenham 1–1 Everton: 13% Tottenham 1–2 Everton: 9% Tottenham 1–3 Everton: 4% Tottenham 1–4 Everton: 1% Tottenham 1–5 Everton: <1% Tottenham 1–6 Everton: <1% Tottenham 2–0 Everton: 6% Tottenham 2–1 Everton: 8% Tottenham 2–2 Everton: 6% Tottenham 2–3 Everton: 3% Tottenham 2–4 Everton: <1% Tottenham 2–5 Everton: <1% Tottenham 2–6 Everton: <1% Tottenham 3–0 Everton: 2% Tottenham 3–1 Everton: 3% Tottenham 3–2 Everton: 2% Tottenham 3–3 Everton: 1% Tottenham 3–4 Everton: <1% Tottenham 3–5 Everton: <1% Tottenham 4–0 Everton: <1% Tottenham 4–1 Everton: 1% Tottenham 4–2 Everton: <1% Tottenham 4–3 Everton: <1% Tottenham 4–4 Everton: <1% Tottenham 5–0 Everton: <1% Tottenham 5–1 Everton: <1% Tottenham 5–2 Everton: <1% Tottenham 5–3 Everton: <1% Tottenham 6–1 Everton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Tottenham win, above it Everton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →