Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea 2–2 Hull City

Saturday 12th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 4 · Full time

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Chelsea win

2–2Full time

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Hull City win ▶ 20% draw chance bookmakers
Hull City crest

Confidence: Strong

CHE HUL W-L-W-W-L L-L-W-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.20 -1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-L-W-W L-L-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.80 -1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 2.12 0.90 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.61 2.42 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 79% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.50 1.58 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.56 1.71 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Strong 1575 Weak 1428 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.8 2.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game CHE HUL W-L-W-W-L L-L-W-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.20 -1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-L-W-W L-L-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.80 -1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 2.12 0.90 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.61 2.42 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 65% 79% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.50 1.58 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.56 1.71 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Strong 1575 Weak 1428 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.8 2.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Defence. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Chelsea: 1.61 to 2.42. When this gap appears, the side with the tighter defence tends to win, in around 69% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callChelsea to win: 65% against 15%, with the draw at 20%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is attacking form.
  • For ChelseaDefence 1.61 v 2.42 (decisive); Goals 2.12 v 0.90 (clear); Goal difference 0.20 v -1.40 (clear).
  • For Hull CityGK save rate 79% v 65% (decisive).
  • FormChelsea W-L-W-W-L, Hull City L-L-W-W-D.

NB 4 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Chelsea 4-2-3-1 confirmedHull City 5-4-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Hull City 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 E. Martínez 21 J. Hato 6 L. Colwill 3 W. Fofana 27 M. Gusto 45 R. Lavia 24 R. James 17 M. Rogers 10 C. Palmer 7 Pedro Neto 9 João Pedro
19 K. Tzolakis 32 N. Mendy 15 J. Egan 6 S. Ajayi 3 R. Giles 2 L. Coyle 21 E. Stroud 27 R. Slater 25 M. Crooks 10 M. Belloumi 9 O. McBurnie
  1. E. Martínez
  2. J. Hato
  3. L. Colwill
  4. W. Fofana
  5. M. Gusto
  6. R. Lavia
  7. R. James
  8. M. Rogers
  9. C. Palmer
  10. Pedro Neto
  11. João Pedro
  1. K. Tzolakis
  2. N. Mendy
  3. J. Egan
  4. S. Ajayi
  5. R. Giles
  6. L. Coyle
  7. E. Stroud
  8. R. Slater
  9. M. Crooks
  10. M. Belloumi
  11. O. McBurnie

Substitutes J. Acheampong, Estêvão, V. Barco, J. Gittens, Pep Chavarría, M. Lacroix, M. Penders, D. Welbeck, Geovany Quenda

Substitutes M. Cho, L. Gourna-Douath, L. Herrington, T. Iroegbunam, B. Norton-Cuffy, D. Phillips, M. Targett, S. Thomas, R. Vaz

Our call: 65% CHE · 20% draw · 15% HUL  ·  bookmakers: 78% / 14% / 8%  ·  expected goals 2.12–0.90

Last updated 12 Sept at 14:14

What separates them

The lean to Chelsea comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Hull City goals Chelsea goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Chelsea 0–0 Hull City: 5% Chelsea 0–1 Hull City: 4% Chelsea 0–2 Hull City: 2% Chelsea 0–3 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 0–4 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 1–0 Hull City: 10% Chelsea 1–1 Hull City: 10% Chelsea 1–2 Hull City: 4% Chelsea 1–3 Hull City: 1% Chelsea 1–4 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 1–5 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 2–0 Hull City: 11% Chelsea 2–1 Hull City: 10% Chelsea 2–2 Hull City: 4% Chelsea 2–3 Hull City: 1% Chelsea 2–4 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 2–5 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 3–0 Hull City: 8% Chelsea 3–1 Hull City: 7% Chelsea 3–2 Hull City: 3% Chelsea 3–3 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 3–4 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 4–0 Hull City: 4% Chelsea 4–1 Hull City: 4% Chelsea 4–2 Hull City: 2% Chelsea 4–3 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 4–4 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 5–0 Hull City: 2% Chelsea 5–1 Hull City: 2% Chelsea 5–2 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 5–3 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 6–0 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 6–1 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 6–2 Hull City: <1% Chelsea 6–3 Hull City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Chelsea win, above it Hull City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →