Which Team Will Win?

Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford

Saturday 12th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 4 · Full time

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Bournemouth win

2–2Full time

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Brentford win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Brentford crest

Confidence: Slight

BOU BRE D-D-L-D-D D-D-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-D-W-D-D D-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.12 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 69% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.42 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.55 1.79 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 4.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.50 1.64 Defence Conceded per game Strong 1586 Above average 1555 Elo performance 1500 is average BOU BRE D-D-L-D-D D-D-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-D-W-D-D D-L-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.12 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 69% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.42 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.55 1.79 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 4.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.50 1.64 Defence Conceded per game Strong 1586 Above average 1555 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: GK save rate. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Brentford: 73% to 69%. the side with the goalkeeper in better form normally comes out on top here – 63% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – Brentford come out ahead on it, and Bournemouth are favoured anyway – on the strength of home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the rest advantage.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 48% against 26%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the rest advantage – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For BournemouthGoal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear); Home and away form D-D-W-D-D v D-L-L-D-D (useful); Goals 1.59 v 1.12 (useful).
  • For BrentfordGK save rate 73% v 69% (useful); Goal difference 0.60 v -0.20 (useful); Attack 1.79 v 1.55 (slight).
  • FormBournemouth D-D-L-D-D, Brentford D-D-W-D-D.

NB 4 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 confirmedBrentford 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 3 A. Truffert 14 António Silva 5 J. Hill 15 A. Smith 8 A. Scott 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 19 J. Kluivert 37 Rayan 9 Evanilson
1 C. Kelleher 23 Lewis-Potter 20 K. Ajer 44 J. Schuster 2 A. Hickey 27 V. Janelt 18 M. Sangaré 7 K. Schade 6 Y. Yarmoliuk 19 J. Anthony 9 Igor Thiago
  1. Đ. Petrović
  2. A. Truffert
  3. António Silva
  4. J. Hill
  5. A. Smith
  6. A. Scott
  7. T. Adams
  8. M. Tavernier
  9. J. Kluivert
  10. Rayan
  11. Evanilson
  1. C. Kelleher
  2. K. Lewis-Potter
  3. K. Ajer
  4. J. Schuster
  5. A. Hickey
  6. V. Janelt
  7. M. Sangaré
  8. K. Schade
  9. Y. Yarmoliuk
  10. J. Anthony
  11. Igor Thiago

Substitutes D. Brooks, R. Christie, L. Cook, M. Di Gregorio, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, Á. Rodríguez, J. Soler, A. Tóth

Substitutes E. Diouf, Fábio Carvalho, R. Henry, M. Kayode, M. Damsgaard, Gustavo Nunes, D. Ouattara, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson

Our call: 48% BOU · 26% draw · 26% BRE  ·  bookmakers: 38% / 26% / 35%  ·  expected goals 1.59–1.12

Last updated 12 Sept at 14:14

What separates them

The lean to Bournemouth comes from home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the rest advantage.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Brentford goals Bournemouth goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford: 7% Bournemouth 0–1 Brentford: 7% Bournemouth 0–2 Brentford: 4% Bournemouth 0–3 Brentford: 2% Bournemouth 0–4 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 0–5 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 1–0 Brentford: 10% Bournemouth 1–1 Brentford: 12% Bournemouth 1–2 Brentford: 7% Bournemouth 1–3 Brentford: 2% Bournemouth 1–4 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 1–5 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 2–0 Brentford: 8% Bournemouth 2–1 Brentford: 9% Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford: 5% Bournemouth 2–3 Brentford: 2% Bournemouth 2–4 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 2–5 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 3–0 Brentford: 4% Bournemouth 3–1 Brentford: 5% Bournemouth 3–2 Brentford: 3% Bournemouth 3–3 Brentford: 1% Bournemouth 3–4 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 3–5 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 4–0 Brentford: 2% Bournemouth 4–1 Brentford: 2% Bournemouth 4–2 Brentford: 1% Bournemouth 4–3 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 4–4 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 5–0 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 5–1 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 5–2 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 5–3 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 6–0 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 6–1 Brentford: <1% Bournemouth 6–2 Brentford: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Bournemouth win, above it Brentford do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →