Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest

Saturday 12th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 4 · Full time

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Aston Villa win

1–2Full time

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Forest win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Nottingham Forest crest

Confidence: Slight

AVL NFO W-W-L-L-D L-D-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-W-L W-W-W-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 1.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 55% 45% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.08 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1595 Average 1515 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.42 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.16 1.40 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 73% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.93 2.18 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven AVL NFO W-W-L-L-D L-D-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-W-L W-W-W-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 1.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 55% 45% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.08 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1595 Average 1515 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.42 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.16 1.40 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 73% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.93 2.18 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Aston Villa come out on top, Strong against Average. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins – about 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callAston Villa to win: 47% against 27%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and the rest advantage – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For Aston VillaPossession 55% v 45% (clear); Elo performance 1595 v 1515 (useful); Goals 1.52 v 1.08 (slight).
  • For Nottingham ForestGoal difference at this venue 1.80 v 0.60 (useful); Attack 1.40 v 1.16 (slight); XI attacking output 2.18 v 1.93 (slight).
  • FormAston Villa W-W-L-L-D, Nottingham Forest L-D-L-D-D.

NB 4 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmedNottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 22 I. Maatsen 14 Pau Torres 3 V. Lindelöf 29 Wan-Bissaka 6 R. Barkley 8 B. Kamara 53 G. Hemmings 10 E. Buendía 7 J. McGinn 11 N. Jackson
26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 2 O. Diomande 34 O. Aina 3 N. Williams 21 X. Schlager 24 J. McAtee 27 D. Muñoz 10 M. Gibbs-White 14 D. Ndoye 19 L. Delap
  1. Z. Suzuki
  2. I. Maatsen
  3. Pau Torres
  4. V. Lindelöf
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka
  6. R. Barkley
  7. B. Kamara
  8. G. Hemmings
  9. E. Buendía
  10. J. McGinn
  11. N. Jackson
  1. M. Sels
  2. Murillo
  3. O. Diomande
  4. O. Aina
  5. N. Williams
  6. X. Schlager
  7. J. McAtee
  8. D. Muñoz
  9. M. Gibbs-White
  10. D. Ndoye
  11. L. Delap

Substitutes T. Abraham, M. Bizot, L. Bogarde, A. Garnacho, J. Manzambi, I. Mbaye, T. Mings, M. Ruggeri, Alysson

Substitutes N. Domínguez, C. Hudson-Odoi, A. Kalimuendo, John Victor, Igor Jesus, L. Netz, I. Sangaré, C. Wood, R. Yates

Our call: 47% AVL · 26% draw · 27% NFO  ·  bookmakers: 42% / 28% / 30%  ·  expected goals 1.52–1.08

Last updated 12 Sept at 14:14

What separates them

The lean to Aston Villa comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and the rest advantage.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Forest goals Aston Villa goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Aston Villa 0–0 Forest: 8% Aston Villa 0–1 Forest: 8% Aston Villa 0–2 Forest: 4% Aston Villa 0–3 Forest: 2% Aston Villa 0–4 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 0–5 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 1–0 Forest: 11% Aston Villa 1–1 Forest: 13% Aston Villa 1–2 Forest: 7% Aston Villa 1–3 Forest: 2% Aston Villa 1–4 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 1–5 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 2–0 Forest: 9% Aston Villa 2–1 Forest: 9% Aston Villa 2–2 Forest: 5% Aston Villa 2–3 Forest: 2% Aston Villa 2–4 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 2–5 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 3–0 Forest: 4% Aston Villa 3–1 Forest: 5% Aston Villa 3–2 Forest: 3% Aston Villa 3–3 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 3–4 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 3–5 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 4–0 Forest: 2% Aston Villa 4–1 Forest: 2% Aston Villa 4–2 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 4–3 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 4–4 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 5–0 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 5–1 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 5–2 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 5–3 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 6–0 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 6–1 Forest: <1% Aston Villa 6–2 Forest: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Aston Villa win, above it Forest do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →