Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea

Sunday 6th September 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Arsenal win

2–1Full time

Arsenal crest
◀ Arsenal win Chelsea win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Chelsea crest

Confidence: Strong

ARS CHE W-W-W-W-W D-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-W-W-W L-L-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.96 0.82 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 75% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 0.71 1.48 Defence Conceded per game 0.90 1.41 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Exceptional 1754 Strong 1579 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.45 2.79 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.8 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game ARS CHE W-W-W-W-W D-W-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-W-W-W L-L-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.96 0.82 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 75% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 0.71 1.48 Defence Conceded per game 0.90 1.41 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Exceptional 1754 Strong 1579 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.45 2.79 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.8 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: GK save rate. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Arsenal come out on top, 75% against 62%. Historically, the side with the goalkeeper in better form takes these roughly 70% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 64% against 15%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is the strength of this eleven against their usual one.
  • For ArsenalGK save rate 75% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.40 v -1.20 (decisive); XI defensive record 0.90 v 1.41 (decisive).
  • For ChelseaXI attacking output 2.79 v 2.45 (slight).
  • FormArsenal W-W-W-W-W, Chelsea D-W-L-W-W.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Arsenal 4-5-1 confirmedChelsea 5-4-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Arsenal 4-5-1

Confirmed starting XI

Chelsea 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 David Raya 33 R. Calafiori 15 E. Konsa 4 B. White 6 Gabriel Magalhães 49 Lewis-Skelly 41 D. Rice 7 B. Saka 17 C. Tzolis 8 M. Ødegaard 29 K. Havertz
1 E. Martínez 34 Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 21 J. Hato 24 R. James 5 M. Lacroix 45 R. Lavia 7 Pedro Neto 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 9 João Pedro
  1. R. Calafiori
  2. K. Havertz
  3. E. Konsa
  4. M. Lewis-Skelly
  5. David Raya
  6. D. Rice
  7. B. Saka
  8. C. Tzolis
  9. B. White
  10. Gabriel Magalhães
  11. M. Ødegaard
  1. J. Acheampong
  2. W. Fofana
  3. J. Hato
  4. R. James
  5. João Pedro
  6. M. Lacroix
  7. R. Lavia
  8. Pedro Neto
  9. E. Martínez
  10. C. Palmer
  11. M. Rogers

Substitutes Kepa Arrizabalaga, M. Dowman, E. Eze, Bruno Guimarães, V. Gyökeres, P. Hincapié, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi

Substitutes Estêvão, V. Barco, J. Gittens, Pep Chavarría, M. Gusto, M. Penders, L. Colwill, D. Welbeck, Geovany Quenda

Our call: 64% ARS · 22% draw · 15% CHE  ·  bookmakers: 56% / 25% / 20%  ·  expected goals 1.96–0.82

Last updated 6 Sept at 15:43

What separates them

The lean to Arsenal comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Chelsea goals Arsenal goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Arsenal 0–0 Chelsea: 7% Arsenal 0–1 Chelsea: 5% Arsenal 0–2 Chelsea: 2% Arsenal 0–3 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 0–4 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea: 12% Arsenal 1–1 Chelsea: 10% Arsenal 1–2 Chelsea: 4% Arsenal 1–3 Chelsea: 1% Arsenal 1–4 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 2–0 Chelsea: 12% Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea: 10% Arsenal 2–2 Chelsea: 4% Arsenal 2–3 Chelsea: 1% Arsenal 2–4 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 3–0 Chelsea: 8% Arsenal 3–1 Chelsea: 6% Arsenal 3–2 Chelsea: 3% Arsenal 3–3 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 3–4 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 4–0 Chelsea: 4% Arsenal 4–1 Chelsea: 3% Arsenal 4–2 Chelsea: 1% Arsenal 4–3 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 4–4 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 5–0 Chelsea: 1% Arsenal 5–1 Chelsea: 1% Arsenal 5–2 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 5–3 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 6–0 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 6–1 Chelsea: <1% Arsenal 6–2 Chelsea: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Arsenal win, above it Chelsea do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →