Which Team Will Win?

Everton 2–2 Manchester United

Sunday 6th September 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Manchester United win

2–2Full time

Everton crest
◀ Everton win Man United win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester United crest

Knife-edge – Manchester United shade it

EVE MUN D-L-L-W-D D-W-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-L-D-L-W D-W-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.35 1.63 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.40 3.53 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.32 2.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.56 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1533 Strong 1616 Elo performance 1500 is average 5.2 5.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game EVE MUN D-L-L-W-D D-W-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-L-D-L-W D-W-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 48% 52% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.35 1.63 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.40 3.53 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.32 2.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.56 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1533 Strong 1616 Elo performance 1500 is average 5.2 5.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 3.53 to 2.40. the side naming the more potent eleven normally comes out on top here – 73% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Everton 32%, draw 25%, Manchester United 44%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Manchester United comes from the long-run strength gap, what this eleven creates and recent shots on target.
  • For Manchester UnitedAttack 2.38 v 1.32 (decisive); XI attacking output 3.53 v 2.40 (decisive); Goal difference 1.00 v -0.20 (clear).
  • For EvertonNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormEverton D-L-L-W-D, Manchester United D-W-W-L-W.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Everton 4-2-3-1 confirmedManchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Pickford 16 V. Mykolenko 4 Branthwaite 6 J. Tarkowski 34 M. Röhl 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 19 T. George 8 Dewsbury-Hall 22 B. Johnson 11 T. Barry
1 S. Lammens 23 L. Shaw 6 L. Martínez 5 H. Maguire 2 Diogo Dalot 37 K. Mainoo 18 Y. Tielemans 9 M. Rashford 8 Bruno Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 10 Matheus Cunha
  1. J. Pickford
  2. V. Mykolenko
  3. J. Branthwaite
  4. J. Tarkowski
  5. M. Röhl
  6. J. Garner
  7. H. Armstrong
  8. T. George
  9. K. Dewsbury-Hall
  10. B. Johnson
  11. T. Barry
  1. S. Lammens
  2. L. Shaw
  3. L. Martínez
  4. H. Maguire
  5. Diogo Dalot
  6. K. Mainoo
  7. Y. Tielemans
  8. M. Rashford
  9. Bruno Fernandes
  10. B. Mbeumo
  11. Matheus Cunha

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, B. Graham, J. Grealish, H. Hackney, M. Keane, A. Maitland-Niles, J. O'Brien, M. Travers

Substitutes K. Darlow, P. Dorgu, A. Heaven, N. Mazraoui, M. Mount, Andrey Santos, L. Yoro, J. Zirkzee, B. Šeško

Our call: 32% EVE · 25% draw · 44% MUN  ·  bookmakers: 29% / 27% / 44%  ·  expected goals 1.35–1.63

Last updated 6 Sept at 13:18

What separates them

The lean to Man United comes from the long-run strength gap, what this eleven creates and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man United goals Everton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Everton 0–0 Man United: 5% Everton 0–1 Man United: 8% Everton 0–2 Man United: 7% Everton 0–3 Man United: 4% Everton 0–4 Man United: 1% Everton 0–5 Man United: <1% Everton 0–6 Man United: <1% Everton 1–0 Man United: 7% Everton 1–1 Man United: 12% Everton 1–2 Man United: 9% Everton 1–3 Man United: 5% Everton 1–4 Man United: 2% Everton 1–5 Man United: <1% Everton 1–6 Man United: <1% Everton 2–0 Man United: 5% Everton 2–1 Man United: 8% Everton 2–2 Man United: 6% Everton 2–3 Man United: 3% Everton 2–4 Man United: 1% Everton 2–5 Man United: <1% Everton 2–6 Man United: <1% Everton 3–0 Man United: 2% Everton 3–1 Man United: 3% Everton 3–2 Man United: 3% Everton 3–3 Man United: 2% Everton 3–4 Man United: <1% Everton 3–5 Man United: <1% Everton 3–6 Man United: <1% Everton 4–0 Man United: <1% Everton 4–1 Man United: 1% Everton 4–2 Man United: <1% Everton 4–3 Man United: <1% Everton 4–4 Man United: <1% Everton 4–5 Man United: <1% Everton 5–0 Man United: <1% Everton 5–1 Man United: <1% Everton 5–2 Man United: <1% Everton 5–3 Man United: <1% Everton 5–4 Man United: <1% Everton 6–1 Man United: <1% Everton 6–2 Man United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Everton win, above it Man United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →