Which Team Will Win?

Hull City 0–0 Aston Villa

Saturday 5th September 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
MoreLess

Aston Villa win

0–0Full time

Hull City crest
◀ Hull City win Aston Villa win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Aston Villa crest

Confidence: Fair

HUL AVL L-L-L-W-W D-W-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.80 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-L-W D-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 0.99 1.67 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.53 1.66 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.50 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 79% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Weak 1425 Strong 1598 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.9 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 0.89 1.07 Attack Goals and expected goals per game HUL AVL L-L-L-W-W D-W-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.80 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-L-W D-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 0.99 1.67 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.53 1.66 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.50 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 79% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Weak 1425 Strong 1598 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.9 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 0.89 1.07 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: Defence. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Aston Villa lead it, 1.66 to 2.53. When this gap appears, the side with the tighter defence tends to win, in around 66% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callAston Villa to win: 53% against 22%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Aston VillaDefence 1.66 v 2.53 (decisive); Elo performance 1598 v 1425 (clear); Goal difference -0.40 v -1.80 (clear).
  • For Hull CityGK save rate 79% v 68% (decisive); Home and away form W-W-L-L-W v D-L-D-W-L (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.40 v -0.80 (slight).
  • FormHull City L-L-L-W-W, Aston Villa D-W-W-L-L.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Hull City 5-4-1 confirmedAston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Hull City 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

19 K. Tzolakis 32 N. Mendy 15 J. Egan 6 S. Ajayi 3 R. Giles 2 L. Coyle 21 E. Stroud 29 Gourna-Douath 27 R. Slater 10 M. Belloumi 9 O. McBurnie
1 Z. Suzuki 22 I. Maatsen 5 T. Mings 3 V. Lindelöf 2 M. Cash 6 R. Barkley 8 B. Kamara 53 G. Hemmings 10 E. Buendía 7 J. McGinn 11 N. Jackson
  1. K. Tzolakis
  2. N. Mendy
  3. J. Egan
  4. S. Ajayi
  5. R. Giles
  6. L. Coyle
  7. E. Stroud
  8. L. Gourna-Douath
  9. R. Slater
  10. M. Belloumi
  11. O. McBurnie
  1. Z. Suzuki
  2. I. Maatsen
  3. T. Mings
  4. V. Lindelöf
  5. M. Cash
  6. R. Barkley
  7. B. Kamara
  8. G. Hemmings
  9. E. Buendía
  10. J. McGinn
  11. N. Jackson

Substitutes M. Cho, L. Herrington, J. Hjertø-Dahl, C. Mouzakitis, B. Norton-Cuffy, D. Phillips, M. Targett, S. Thomas, R. Vaz

Substitutes T. Abraham, M. Bizot, L. Bogarde, Pau Torres, A. Garnacho, I. Mbaye, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, Alysson

Our call: 22% HUL · 25% draw · 53% AVL  ·  bookmakers: 23% / 26% / 51%  ·  expected goals 0.99–1.67

Last updated 5 Sept at 17:16

What separates them

The lean to Aston Villa comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Aston Villa goals Hull City goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Hull City 0–0 Aston Villa: 7% Hull City 0–1 Aston Villa: 11% Hull City 0–2 Aston Villa: 10% Hull City 0–3 Aston Villa: 5% Hull City 0–4 Aston Villa: 2% Hull City 0–5 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 0–6 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 1–0 Aston Villa: 7% Hull City 1–1 Aston Villa: 12% Hull City 1–2 Aston Villa: 10% Hull City 1–3 Aston Villa: 5% Hull City 1–4 Aston Villa: 2% Hull City 1–5 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 1–6 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 2–0 Aston Villa: 3% Hull City 2–1 Aston Villa: 6% Hull City 2–2 Aston Villa: 5% Hull City 2–3 Aston Villa: 3% Hull City 2–4 Aston Villa: 1% Hull City 2–5 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 2–6 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 3–0 Aston Villa: 1% Hull City 3–1 Aston Villa: 2% Hull City 3–2 Aston Villa: 2% Hull City 3–3 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 3–4 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 3–5 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 4–0 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 4–1 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 4–2 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 4–3 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 4–4 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 5–0 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 5–1 Aston Villa: <1% Hull City 5–2 Aston Villa: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Hull City win, above it Aston Villa do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →