Which Team Will Win?

Nottingham Forest 0–0 Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 5th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Nottingham Forest win

0–0Full time

Nottingham Forest crest
◀ Forest win Tottenham win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Fair

NFO TOT D-L-D-L-D D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.40 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-D-D-L L-W-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.58 1.07 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.35 1.20 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1519 Below average 1452 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.49 1.26 Defence Conceded per game 1.55 1.07 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 74% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.5 4.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game NFO TOT D-L-D-L-D D-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.40 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-D-D-L L-W-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.58 1.07 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.35 1.20 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1519 Below average 1452 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.49 1.26 Defence Conceded per game 1.55 1.07 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 74% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.5 4.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Tottenham Hotspur: 1.20 to 1.35. Historically, the side with the steadier back line takes these roughly 74% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – it favours Tottenham Hotspur; Nottingham Forest are tipped because they lead on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

  • The callNottingham Forest to win: 49% against 26%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is attacking form.
  • For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 74% v 63% (decisive); Attack 1.55 v 1.07 (useful); Goal difference at this venue 0.40 v -0.60 (useful).
  • For Tottenham HotspurPossession 55% v 45% (clear); XI defensive record 1.20 v 1.35 (useful); Defence 1.26 v 1.49 (slight).
  • FormNottingham Forest D-L-D-L-D, Tottenham Hotspur D-L-W-L-L.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 confirmedTottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 31 N. Milenković 23 Jair Cunha 3 N. Williams 24 J. McAtee 21 X. Schlager 34 O. Aina 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 19 L. Delap
31 A. Kinský 13 D. Udogie 37 van de Ven 6 J. van Hecke 23 Pedro Porro 16 S. Tonali 30 R. Bentancur 11 M. Tel 8 C. Gallagher 17 Sávio 22 Omar Marmoush
  1. M. Sels
  2. Murillo
  3. N. Milenković
  4. Jair Cunha
  5. N. Williams
  6. J. McAtee
  7. X. Schlager
  8. O. Aina
  9. D. Ndoye
  10. M. Gibbs-White
  11. L. Delap
  1. A. Kinský
  2. D. Udogie
  3. M. van de Ven
  4. J. van Hecke
  5. Pedro Porro
  6. S. Tonali
  7. R. Bentancur
  8. M. Tel
  9. C. Gallagher
  10. Sávio
  11. Omar Marmoush

Substitutes O. Diomande, N. Domínguez, C. Hudson-Odoi, John Victor, Igor Jesus, D. Muñoz, L. Netz, C. Wood, R. Yates

Substitutes L. Bergvall, M. Dúbravka, Mateus Fernandes, A. Gray, M. Kudus, M. Mudryk, A. Robertson, M. Senesi, D. Solanke

Our call: 49% NFO · 26% draw · 26% TOT  ·  bookmakers: 39% / 28% / 33%  ·  expected goals 1.58–1.07

Last updated 5 Sept at 14:17

What separates them

The lean to Forest comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Tottenham goals Forest goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Forest 0–0 Tottenham: 7% Forest 0–1 Tottenham: 7% Forest 0–2 Tottenham: 4% Forest 0–3 Tottenham: 1% Forest 0–4 Tottenham: <1% Forest 0–5 Tottenham: <1% Forest 1–0 Tottenham: 11% Forest 1–1 Tottenham: 12% Forest 1–2 Tottenham: 6% Forest 1–3 Tottenham: 2% Forest 1–4 Tottenham: <1% Forest 1–5 Tottenham: <1% Forest 2–0 Tottenham: 9% Forest 2–1 Tottenham: 9% Forest 2–2 Tottenham: 5% Forest 2–3 Tottenham: 2% Forest 2–4 Tottenham: <1% Forest 2–5 Tottenham: <1% Forest 3–0 Tottenham: 5% Forest 3–1 Tottenham: 5% Forest 3–2 Tottenham: 3% Forest 3–3 Tottenham: <1% Forest 3–4 Tottenham: <1% Forest 3–5 Tottenham: <1% Forest 4–0 Tottenham: 2% Forest 4–1 Tottenham: 2% Forest 4–2 Tottenham: 1% Forest 4–3 Tottenham: <1% Forest 4–4 Tottenham: <1% Forest 5–0 Tottenham: <1% Forest 5–1 Tottenham: <1% Forest 5–2 Tottenham: <1% Forest 5–3 Tottenham: <1% Forest 6–0 Tottenham: <1% Forest 6–1 Tottenham: <1% Forest 6–2 Tottenham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Forest win, above it Tottenham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →