Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City 1–0 Coventry City

Saturday 5th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Manchester City win

1–0Full time

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Coventry win ▶ 13% draw chance bookmakers
Coventry City crest

Confidence: Very strong

MCI COV W-D-L-W-W L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.20 -2.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-W-L-W L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 -3.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 2.77 0.70 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1735 Weak 1416 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.21 2.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 70% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.21 1.32 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven MCI COV W-D-L-W-W L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.20 -2.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-W-L-W L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 -3.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 2.77 0.70 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1735 Weak 1416 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.21 2.12 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 70% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.21 1.32 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Weak. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins – about 76% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester City to win: 80% against 7%, with the draw at 13%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is attacking form.
  • For Manchester CityGoal difference 1.20 v -2.00 (decisive); Home and away form W-W-W-L-W v L (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.40 v -3.00 (decisive).
  • For Coventry CityNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormManchester City W-D-L-W-W, Coventry City L-L.

NB 3 of the 7 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmedCoventry City 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 24 J. Gvardiol 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben Dias 45 A. Khusanov 5 E. Anderson 17 E. Fernández 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
19 C. Rushworth 2 E. Pinnock 24 A. Amenda 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 6 M. Grimes 16 F. Onyeka 27 M. van Ewijk 10 E. Mason-Clark 5 J. Rudoni 14 T. Awoniyi
  1. G. Donnarumma
  2. J. Gvardiol
  3. M. Guéhi
  4. Rúben Dias
  5. A. Khusanov
  6. E. Anderson
  7. E. Fernández
  8. I. Ndiaye
  9. R. Cherki
  10. A. Semenyo
  11. E. Haaland
  1. C. Rushworth
  2. E. Pinnock
  3. A. Amenda
  4. B. Thomas
  5. J. Dasilva
  6. M. Grimes
  7. F. Onyeka
  8. M. van Ewijk
  9. E. Mason-Clark
  10. J. Rudoni
  11. T. Awoniyi

Substitutes R. Aït-Nouri, A. Bouaddi, P. Foden, M. Kovačić, R. Lewis, R. McAidoo, Matheus Nunes, G. Rulli, F. Samba

Substitutes D. Bentley, G. Hamer, J. Latibeaudiere, T. Sakamoto, E. Simms, L. Tchaouna, B. Thomas-Asante, V. Torp, C. Yirenkyi

Our call: 80% MCI · 13% draw · 7% COV  ·  bookmakers: 81% / 12% / 7%  ·  expected goals 2.77–0.70

Last updated 5 Sept at 17:01

What separates them

The lean to Man City comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Coventry goals Man City goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man City 0–0 Coventry: 3% Man City 0–1 Coventry: 2% Man City 0–2 Coventry: <1% Man City 0–3 Coventry: <1% Man City 1–0 Coventry: 9% Man City 1–1 Coventry: 6% Man City 1–2 Coventry: 2% Man City 1–3 Coventry: <1% Man City 1–4 Coventry: <1% Man City 2–0 Coventry: 12% Man City 2–1 Coventry: 8% Man City 2–2 Coventry: 3% Man City 2–3 Coventry: <1% Man City 2–4 Coventry: <1% Man City 3–0 Coventry: 11% Man City 3–1 Coventry: 8% Man City 3–2 Coventry: 3% Man City 3–3 Coventry: <1% Man City 3–4 Coventry: <1% Man City 4–0 Coventry: 8% Man City 4–1 Coventry: 5% Man City 4–2 Coventry: 2% Man City 4–3 Coventry: <1% Man City 4–4 Coventry: <1% Man City 5–0 Coventry: 4% Man City 5–1 Coventry: 3% Man City 5–2 Coventry: 1% Man City 5–3 Coventry: <1% Man City 6–0 Coventry: 2% Man City 6–1 Coventry: 1% Man City 6–2 Coventry: <1% Man City 6–3 Coventry: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man City win, above it Coventry do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →