Which Team Will Win?

Fulham 2–3 Crystal Palace

Saturday 5th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Fulham win

2–3Full time

Fulham crest
◀ Fulham win Crystal Palace win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Crystal Palace crest

Confidence: Slight

FUL CRY L-D-W-L-L L-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 -1.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-W-L L-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 -2.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.45 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 71% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.47 1.61 Defence Conceded per game 1.49 1.42 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.25 1.39 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.28 2.29 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Average 1512 Average 1504 Elo performance 1500 is average FUL CRY L-D-W-L-L L-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 -1.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-W-L L-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 -2.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.45 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 71% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.47 1.61 Defence Conceded per game 1.49 1.42 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.25 1.39 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 2.28 2.29 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Average 1512 Average 1504 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: GK save rate. No other measure separates them as clearly. Fulham lead it, 71% to 59%. the side with the goalkeeper in better form normally comes out on top here – 66% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callFulham to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 27%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the rest advantage and the long-run strength gap.
  • For FulhamGoal difference at this venue 0.60 v -2.00 (decisive); GK save rate 71% v 59% (decisive); Home and away form W-W-L-W-L v L-L-L-D-L (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceAttack 1.39 v 1.25 (slight); XI defensive record 1.42 v 1.49 (slight); XI attacking output 2.29 v 2.28 (marginal).
  • FormFulham L-D-W-L-L, Crystal Palace L-D-L-L-L.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Fulham 4-2-3-1 confirmedCrystal Palace 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 B. Leno 33 A. Robinson 3 C. Bassey 5 J. Andersen 21 T. Castagne 17 A. Iwobi 19 S. Charles 8 César Palacios 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 7 Gonzalo García
1 D. Henderson 26 C. Richards 5 A. Disasi 6 J. Canvot 3 T. Mitchell 23 Q. Timber 20 A. Wharton 25 A. Khalaili 18 D. Kamada 10 Yéremy Pino 9 E. Nketiah
  1. B. Leno
  2. A. Robinson
  3. C. Bassey
  4. J. Andersen
  5. T. Castagne
  6. A. Iwobi
  7. S. Charles
  8. César Palacios
  9. J. King
  10. O. Bobb
  11. Gonzalo García
  1. D. Henderson
  2. C. Richards
  3. A. Disasi
  4. J. Canvot
  5. T. Mitchell
  6. Q. Timber
  7. A. Wharton
  8. A. Khalaili
  9. D. Kamada
  10. Yéremy Pino
  11. E. Nketiah

Substitutes D. Affengruber, S. Berge, H. Larsson, B. Lecomte, Manuel Ángel, Rodrigo Muniz, Kevin, R. Sessegnon, E. Smith Rowe

Substitutes W. Benítez, B. Chilwell, C. Doucouré, Z. Gozo, W. Hughes, Óscar Mingueza, D. Osorio, J. Strand Larsen, T. Tomiyasu

Our call: 45% FUL · 27% draw · 29% CRY  ·  bookmakers: 41% / 28% / 31%  ·  expected goals 1.45–1.11

Last updated 5 Sept at 14:17

What separates them

The lean to Fulham comes from home advantage, the rest advantage and the long-run strength gap.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Crystal Palace goals Fulham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Fulham 0–0 Crystal Palace: 8% Fulham 0–1 Crystal Palace: 8% Fulham 0–2 Crystal Palace: 5% Fulham 0–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Fulham 0–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 0–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 1–0 Crystal Palace: 11% Fulham 1–1 Crystal Palace: 13% Fulham 1–2 Crystal Palace: 7% Fulham 1–3 Crystal Palace: 3% Fulham 1–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 1–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 2–0 Crystal Palace: 8% Fulham 2–1 Crystal Palace: 9% Fulham 2–2 Crystal Palace: 5% Fulham 2–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Fulham 2–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 2–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 3–0 Crystal Palace: 4% Fulham 3–1 Crystal Palace: 4% Fulham 3–2 Crystal Palace: 2% Fulham 3–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 3–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 3–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 4–0 Crystal Palace: 1% Fulham 4–1 Crystal Palace: 2% Fulham 4–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 4–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 4–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 5–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 5–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 5–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 5–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 6–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 6–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Fulham 6–2 Crystal Palace: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Fulham win, above it Crystal Palace do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →