Which Team Will Win?

Brighton & Hove Albion 1–1 Leeds United

Saturday 5th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Brighton & Hove Albion win

1–1Full time

Brighton & Hove Albion crest
◀ Brighton win Leeds United win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Fair

BHA LEE W-L-L-W-L D-W-L-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-W-L-W W-D-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.60 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 55% 45% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.71 1.07 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.98 1.28 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 66% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.7 4.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.84 2.11 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Strong 1563 Average 1511 Elo performance 1500 is average BHA LEE W-L-L-W-L D-W-L-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-W-L-W W-D-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.60 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 55% 45% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.71 1.07 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.98 1.28 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 66% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.7 4.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.84 2.11 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Strong 1563 Average 1511 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Attack. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Brighton & Hove Albion come out on top, 1.98 against 1.28. When this gap appears, the side scoring more freely tends to win, in around 72% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callBrighton & Hove Albion to win: 52% against 23%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is attacking form.
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGoal difference at this venue 1.60 v -0.20 (clear); Attack 1.98 v 1.28 (clear); Shots on target 5.7 v 4.0 (clear).
  • For Leeds UnitedNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormBrighton & Hove Albion W-L-L-W-L, Leeds United D-W-L-W-D.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 confirmedLeeds United 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 B. Verbruggen 21 O. Boscagli 5 L. Dunk 44 L. Vušković 24 F. Kadıoğlu 26 Y. Ayari 13 P. Groß 29 M. De Cuyper 35 M. Yalcouyé 25 D. Gómez 19 C. Kostoulas
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 30 N. Elvedi 24 J. Justin 3 Gudmundsson 22 A. Tanaka 4 E. Ampadu 2 J. Bogle 19 N. Okafor 18 A. Stach 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. B. Verbruggen
  2. O. Boscagli
  3. L. Dunk
  4. L. Vušković
  5. F. Kadıoğlu
  6. Y. Ayari
  7. P. Groß
  8. M. De Cuyper
  9. M. Yalcouyé
  10. D. Gómez
  11. C. Kostoulas
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. N. Elvedi
  4. J. Justin
  5. G. Gudmundsson
  6. A. Tanaka
  7. E. Ampadu
  8. J. Bogle
  9. N. Okafor
  10. A. Stach
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin

Substitutes Chema Andrés, P. David, J. Hadjam, Costinha, M. O'Riley, N. Oriola, I. Osman, J. Steele, P. Struijk

Substitutes B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, D. James, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, H. Wilson, M. Zetterer

Our call: 52% BHA · 24% draw · 23% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 48% / 27% / 26%  ·  expected goals 1.71–1.07

Last updated 5 Sept at 14:36

What separates them

The lean to Brighton comes from home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Leeds United goals Brighton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brighton 0–0 Leeds United: 6% Brighton 0–1 Leeds United: 6% Brighton 0–2 Leeds United: 4% Brighton 0–3 Leeds United: 1% Brighton 0–4 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 0–5 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 1–0 Leeds United: 10% Brighton 1–1 Leeds United: 12% Brighton 1–2 Leeds United: 6% Brighton 1–3 Leeds United: 2% Brighton 1–4 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 1–5 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 2–0 Leeds United: 9% Brighton 2–1 Leeds United: 10% Brighton 2–2 Leeds United: 5% Brighton 2–3 Leeds United: 2% Brighton 2–4 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 2–5 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 3–0 Leeds United: 5% Brighton 3–1 Leeds United: 6% Brighton 3–2 Leeds United: 3% Brighton 3–3 Leeds United: 1% Brighton 3–4 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 3–5 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 4–0 Leeds United: 2% Brighton 4–1 Leeds United: 2% Brighton 4–2 Leeds United: 1% Brighton 4–3 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 4–4 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 5–0 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 5–1 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 5–2 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 5–3 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 6–0 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 6–1 Leeds United: <1% Brighton 6–2 Leeds United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brighton win, above it Leeds United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →