Which Team Will Win?

Brentford 1–1 Sunderland

Saturday 5th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Brentford win

1–1Full time

Brentford crest
◀ Brentford win Sunderland win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Slight

BRE SUN L-D-D-W-D D-W-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.00 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-D-W-D-W W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.54 1.05 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.82 1.30 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1559 Average 1489 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.49 1.29 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.95 1.95 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved BRE SUN L-D-D-W-D D-W-W-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.00 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-D-W-D-W W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.54 1.05 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.82 1.30 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1559 Average 1489 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.49 1.29 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.95 1.95 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 75% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Attack. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Brentford come out on top, 1.82 against 1.30. Historically, the more productive attack takes these roughly 73% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callBrentford to win: 48% against 26%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is attacking form.
  • For BrentfordXI attacking output 2.95 v 1.95 (clear); GK save rate 75% v 67% (clear); Attack 1.82 v 1.30 (useful).
  • For SunderlandXI defensive record 1.29 v 1.49 (useful); Goal difference 0.60 v 0.00 (slight); Possession 50% v 50% (marginal).
  • FormBrentford L-D-D-W-D, Sunderland D-W-W-L-W.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Brentford 4-2-3-1 confirmedSunderland 5-4-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Sunderland 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 C. Kelleher 23 Lewis-Potter 22 N. Collins 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 27 V. Janelt 18 M. Sangaré 7 K. Schade 24 M. Damsgaard 11 D. Ouattara 9 Igor Thiago
22 R. Roefs 4 K. Danso 5 D. Ballard 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo Mandava 12 T. Meunier 28 E. Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N. Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
  1. C. Kelleher
  2. K. Lewis-Potter
  3. N. Collins
  4. K. Ajer
  5. M. Kayode
  6. V. Janelt
  7. M. Sangaré
  8. K. Schade
  9. M. Damsgaard
  10. D. Ouattara
  11. Igor Thiago
  1. R. Roefs
  2. K. Danso
  3. D. Ballard
  4. N. Mukiele
  5. Reinildo Mandava
  6. T. Meunier
  7. E. Le Fée
  8. G. Xhaka
  9. N. Sadiki
  10. N. Angulo
  11. B. Brobbey

Substitutes J. Anthony, E. Diouf, Fábio Carvalho, R. Henry, A. Hickey, J. Schuster, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson, Y. Yarmoliuk

Substitutes J. Ahoka, O. Alderete, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, T. Hume, W. Isidor, D. Méthalie, L. O'Nien, C. Rigg

Our call: 48% BRE · 26% draw · 26% SUN  ·  bookmakers: 58% / 24% / 18%  ·  expected goals 1.54–1.05

Last updated 5 Sept at 17:08

What separates them

The lean to Brentford comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and what this eleven creates.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Sunderland goals Brentford goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brentford 0–0 Sunderland: 8% Brentford 0–1 Sunderland: 8% Brentford 0–2 Sunderland: 4% Brentford 0–3 Sunderland: 1% Brentford 0–4 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 0–5 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 1–0 Sunderland: 11% Brentford 1–1 Sunderland: 12% Brentford 1–2 Sunderland: 6% Brentford 1–3 Sunderland: 2% Brentford 1–4 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 1–5 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 2–0 Sunderland: 9% Brentford 2–1 Sunderland: 9% Brentford 2–2 Sunderland: 5% Brentford 2–3 Sunderland: 2% Brentford 2–4 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 2–5 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 3–0 Sunderland: 5% Brentford 3–1 Sunderland: 5% Brentford 3–2 Sunderland: 3% Brentford 3–3 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 3–4 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 4–0 Sunderland: 2% Brentford 4–1 Sunderland: 2% Brentford 4–2 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 4–3 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 4–4 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 5–0 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 5–1 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 5–2 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 5–3 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 6–0 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 6–1 Sunderland: <1% Brentford 6–2 Sunderland: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brentford win, above it Sunderland do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →