Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United 2–2 Bournemouth

Saturday 5th September 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Newcastle United win

2–2Full time

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Bournemouth win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Bournemouth crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

NEW BOU D-W-L-D-W W-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.40 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-W-W-D W-W-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.31 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 74% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.26 2.45 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.33 1.55 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Above average 1556 Strong 1585 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.71 1.66 Defence Conceded per game NEW BOU D-W-L-D-W W-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.40 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-W-W-D W-W-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.31 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 74% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.26 2.45 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.33 1.55 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Above average 1556 Strong 1585 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.71 1.66 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: GK save rate. This is the widest gap between them. Newcastle United lead it, 74% to 71%. In matches like this, whoever had the more reliable last line usually wins – about 67% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 38%, draw 27%, Bournemouth 35%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Newcastle United comes from home advantage, attacking form and changes in the other camp.
  • For Newcastle UnitedGK save rate 74% v 71% (slight); Goal difference 0.40 v 0.00 (slight); Possession 51% v 49% (slight).
  • For BournemouthHome and away form W-W-W-D-L v L-L-W-W-D (useful); Attack 1.55 v 1.33 (slight); XI attacking output 2.45 v 2.26 (slight).
  • FormNewcastle United D-W-L-D-W, Bournemouth W-D-D-L-D.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Newcastle United 4-5-1 confirmedBournemouth 4-5-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-5-1

Confirmed starting XI

Bournemouth 4-5-1

Confirmed starting XI

21 L. Horníček 4 S. Botman 37 A. Dedić 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 11 H. Barnes 19 A. Elanga 6 Nico González 67 L. Miley 28 J. Willock 9 Y. Wissa
1 Đ. Petrović 5 J. Hill 14 António Silva 15 A. Smith 3 A. Truffert 12 T. Adams 19 J. Kluivert 8 A. Scott 37 Rayan 16 Tavernier 9 Evanilson
  1. H. Barnes
  2. S. Botman
  3. A. Dedić
  4. A. Elanga
  5. Nico González
  6. L. Hall
  7. L. Horníček
  8. L. Miley
  9. M. Thiaw
  10. J. Willock
  11. Y. Wissa
  1. T. Adams
  2. J. Hill
  3. J. Kluivert
  4. António Silva
  5. Đ. Petrović
  6. A. Scott
  7. Rayan
  8. A. Smith
  9. M. Tavernier
  10. A. Truffert
  11. Evanilson

Substitutes A. Bamba, M. Fernandez-Pardo, T. Livramento, J. Murphy, N. Pope, J. Ramsey, F. Schär, S. Steur, B. Touré

Substitutes D. Brooks, R. Christie, L. Cook, M. Di Gregorio, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, D. Jebbison, J. Soler, Juanlu Sánchez

Our call: 38% NEW · 27% draw · 35% BOU  ·  bookmakers: 45% / 26% / 29%  ·  expected goals 1.31–1.25

Last updated 5 Sept at 11:42

What separates them

The lean to Newcastle comes from home advantage, attacking form and changes in the other camp.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Bournemouth goals Newcastle goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Newcastle 0–0 Bournemouth: 8% Newcastle 0–1 Bournemouth: 9% Newcastle 0–2 Bournemouth: 6% Newcastle 0–3 Bournemouth: 3% Newcastle 0–4 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 0–5 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 1–0 Bournemouth: 10% Newcastle 1–1 Bournemouth: 13% Newcastle 1–2 Bournemouth: 8% Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth: 3% Newcastle 1–4 Bournemouth: 1% Newcastle 1–5 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 1–6 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 2–0 Bournemouth: 7% Newcastle 2–1 Bournemouth: 8% Newcastle 2–2 Bournemouth: 5% Newcastle 2–3 Bournemouth: 2% Newcastle 2–4 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 2–5 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 3–0 Bournemouth: 3% Newcastle 3–1 Bournemouth: 4% Newcastle 3–2 Bournemouth: 2% Newcastle 3–3 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 3–4 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 3–5 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 4–0 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 4–1 Bournemouth: 1% Newcastle 4–2 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 4–3 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 4–4 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 5–0 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 5–1 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 5–2 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 5–3 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 6–0 Bournemouth: <1% Newcastle 6–1 Bournemouth: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Newcastle win, above it Bournemouth do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →