Which Team Will Win?

Ipswich Town 0–2 Liverpool

Friday 4th September 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 3 · Full time

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Liverpool win

0–2Full time

Ipswich Town crest
◀ Ipswich Town win Liverpool win ▶ 21% draw chance bookmakers
Liverpool crest

Confidence: Strong

IPS LIV L-L-L-W-L D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-L-L-W L-W-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.97 2.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Very weak 1372 Very strong 1629 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.01 1.66 Defence Conceded per game 1.75 1.62 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 66% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.9 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game IPS LIV L-L-L-W-L D-L-D-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-L-L-W L-W-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.40 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 40% 60% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 0.97 2.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Very weak 1372 Very strong 1629 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.01 1.66 Defence Conceded per game 1.75 1.62 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 66% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.9 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Liverpool lead it, Very strong to Very weak. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callLiverpool to win: 62% against 17%, with the draw at 21%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 60% v 40% (decisive); Elo performance 1629 v 1372 (decisive); Shots on target 5.1 v 2.9 (decisive).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormIpswich Town L-L-L-W-L, Liverpool D-L-D-D-D.

NB 6 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Ipswich Town 4-5-1 confirmedLiverpool 4-5-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Ipswich Town 4-5-1

Confirmed starting XI

Liverpool 4-5-1

Confirmed starting XI

37 K. Scherpen 3 L. Davis 6 I. Diop 24 J. Greaves 26 D. O'Shea 10 J. Enciso 7 A. Fatawu 23 S. Lukić 38 D. Maeda 25 E. Palacios 19 Emersonn
1 Alisson Becker 33 R. Araujo 5 J. Jacquet 6 M. Kerkez 4 V. van Dijk 18 C. Gakpo 10 Mac Allister 23 Víctor Muñoz 8 Szoboszlai 7 F. Wirtz 9 A. Isak
  1. Emersonn
  2. L. Davis
  3. I. Diop
  4. J. Enciso
  5. J. Greaves
  6. A. Fatawu
  7. S. Lukić
  8. D. Maeda
  9. D. O'Shea
  10. E. Palacios
  11. K. Scherpen
  1. R. Araujo
  2. Alisson Becker
  3. C. Gakpo
  4. A. Isak
  5. J. Jacquet
  6. M. Kerkez
  7. A. Mac Allister
  8. Víctor Muñoz
  9. D. Szoboszlai
  10. F. Wirtz
  11. V. van Dijk

Substitutes J. Clarke, Z. Flemming, D. Furlong, C. Kipré, K. McAteer, Florentino, M. Núñez, A. Ouattara, C. Walton

Substitutes B. Barcola, W. Endo, J. Frimpong, R. Gravenberch, L. Koumas, G. Mamardashvili, R. Ngumoha, T. Nyoni, K. Tsimikas

Our call: 17% IPS · 21% draw · 62% LIV  ·  bookmakers: 17% / 20% / 63%  ·  expected goals 0.97–2.04

Last updated 4 Sept at 19:17

What separates them

The lean to Liverpool comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them.

Likeliest scoreline: 0–2

Liverpool goals Ipswich Town goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Ipswich Town 0–0 Liverpool: 5% Ipswich Town 0–1 Liverpool: 10% Ipswich Town 0–2 Liverpool: 10% Ipswich Town 0–3 Liverpool: 7% Ipswich Town 0–4 Liverpool: 4% Ipswich Town 0–5 Liverpool: 1% Ipswich Town 0–6 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 1–0 Liverpool: 5% Ipswich Town 1–1 Liverpool: 10% Ipswich Town 1–2 Liverpool: 10% Ipswich Town 1–3 Liverpool: 7% Ipswich Town 1–4 Liverpool: 3% Ipswich Town 1–5 Liverpool: 1% Ipswich Town 1–6 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 2–0 Liverpool: 2% Ipswich Town 2–1 Liverpool: 5% Ipswich Town 2–2 Liverpool: 5% Ipswich Town 2–3 Liverpool: 3% Ipswich Town 2–4 Liverpool: 2% Ipswich Town 2–5 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 2–6 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 3–0 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 3–1 Liverpool: 2% Ipswich Town 3–2 Liverpool: 2% Ipswich Town 3–3 Liverpool: 1% Ipswich Town 3–4 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 3–5 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 3–6 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 4–0 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 4–1 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 4–2 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 4–3 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 4–4 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 4–5 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 5–1 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 5–2 Liverpool: <1% Ipswich Town 5–3 Liverpool: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Ipswich Town win, above it Liverpool do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →